Methodology
This atlas systematically distinguishes between quantitatively documented data and reasoned bets (justified assessments). This page explains the data layers, sources and evidence limits.
Two Data Layers
Analysis Layer (data/research/)
Periodically regenerated through a research workflow. Contains energy forms, element data, economic pathways, geopolitics, substitutions, frontier scenarios and the narrative. Sources from IEA, USGS, IRENA, IAEA, BloombergNEF and peer-reviewed journals. Status is visible in the freshness badge.
To update: run the research workflow and place the resulting files (energy.json, elements.json, frontier.json, narrative.md) in data/research/. The schema is defined in lib/types.ts and must not be broken.
Live Layer (data/live/)
Automatically fetched via cron job: node scripts/refresh-live.mjs. Sources: Ember electricity statistics (global CSV), EIA API (US electricity generation), USGS snapshot (manually placed). The live layer overrides analysis layer fields when present. If a source is missing or the fetch fails, it is gracefully skipped.
Evidence vs. Speculation
Documented / quantitative: Market shares (production, reserves, refining), energy mix percentages, historical cost trends, element concentrations in the Earth's crust. These figures have source citations and only change when newer data is available.
Plausible / estimate: Medium-term projections (to ~2050): SMR costs, hydrogen pathway costs, battery price learning curves. Assessments from IEA, IRENA, BloombergNEF that are internally consistent and methodologically sound, but carry uncertainty margins.
Speculative: 100-year scenarios (Aneutronic Fusion, SBSP, Room-Temperature Superconductors). These are marked as “speculative”. They represent reasoned bets based on current research directions, not established knowledge. They may fail, accelerate, or be overtaken by unexpected developments.
Source References
Energy and Electricity
- —IEA World Energy Outlook 2023 — Scenarios, primary energy mix, demand projections
- —IEA Electricity 2024 — Electricity generation by source, global and by country
- —BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2023 — historical primary energy time series
- —IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs 2023 — cost development wind, solar
- —Ember Global Electricity Review 2024 — monthly electricity generation (live data layer)
Critical Minerals and Geopolitics
- —IEA Critical Minerals 2023 — demand projections, supply concentration, bottlenecks
- —USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024 — annual publication on production and reserves
- —EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) Impact Assessment 2023
- —S&P Global Future of Copper 2022 — supply-demand gap to 2035
- —Johnson Matthey PGM Market Report 2024 — Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium
Nuclear Energy
- —IAEA Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) 2024
- —IAEA SMR Technology Status Report 2023
- —IAEA TECDOC-1450: Thorium Fuel Cycle Options 2005
- —World Nuclear Association — Uranium Supply 2024, SMR overview
- —NEA: Unlocking Reductions in the Construction Costs of Nuclear 2020
Batteries, Storage, Hydrogen
- —BloombergNEF Battery Price Survey 2023 — learning curve and price projections
- —BloombergNEF Energy Storage Market Outlook 2024
- —IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2023
- —IRENA Green Hydrogen Cost Reduction 2020
- —DOE Fuel Cell Technologies Office Multi-Year R&D Plan 2023
Frontier and Speculative Technologies
- —Fusion Industry Association Private Fusion Companies Report 2024
- —ITER Organization Progress Update 2024
- —ESA SOLARIS Space-Based Solar Power Feasibility Study 2022
- —Nature, Science and other peer-reviewed journals (individual citations in dataset)
Note on Freshness
Raw material markets, geopolitical power structures and technology maturity change quickly. The analysis layer represents the state of the last research run. Live data (Ember, EIA) is updated via cron; its status is visible in the freshness badge on the main page. For decisions with significant financial or political consequences, always consult the original sources directly.